نوع مقاله : علمی وپزوهشی
نویسندگان
1 کارشناسی ارشد،گروه جامعهشناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی،دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2 گروه جامعه شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
3 گروه جامعه شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This study examines the role of economic factors in shaping voter turnout during the first round of the 2024 Iranian presidential elections, using the province as the unit of analysis. Drawing on the theoretical frameworks of “withdrawal” and the “resource model of voting”, the main hypothesis posits that deteriorating economic conditions—including unemployment, income inequality, multidimensional poverty, and the household income–expenditure gap—reduce electoral participation. The findings reveal that only the unemployment rate exhibits a negative and statistically significant relationship with turnout, while the Gini coefficient, the multidimensional poverty index, and the income–expenditure gap (as a proxy for household savings) show no significant association. Interaction analyses among these variables likewise indicate no significant effects on participation. These results partially support the withdrawal framework while highlighting the limitations of aggregate-level analyses and the complexity of the relationship between economic conditions and voting motivations in Iran. Accordingly, further research based on individual- and household-level data, more precise indicators of civic and social resources, and localized multi-level approaches is recommended to more accurately assess the applicability of the resource model in the Iranian context
کلیدواژهها [English]
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